Topic

The base case to 2040, in full

If costs and revenue keep behaving as they have, where is Brookline's budget headed?

Counting the May 2026 override, and with school staffing continuing to adjust as it has, revenue covers spending every year to 2040, with room of $8 million to $17 million a year through the 2030s and $12.4 million in FY2040.

The base case outlook

Starting from the budget Town Meeting adopted in May 2026 and continuing Brookline's own record from FY2011 to FY2025, revenue covers spending every year and runs ahead of it from FY2028. The gap, the room, is about $0.8 million in FY2028, $8 million to $17 million a year from FY2031 through FY2038, and $12.4 million in FY2040.

The room peaks in FY2036 to FY2038 and then narrows. Health insurance keeps compounding at 8% a year, so its yearly increase doubles from about $5 million in FY2031 to about $10 million by FY2040, while revenue grows by a steadier amount each year. And as enrollment levels off near FY2039, school staff fall more slowly, so the schools' budget grows faster. Budgets must balance every year by law, so a projected gap is not a deficit anyone will run. It measures the size of the choices ahead. Brookline has consistently spent close to what it has, so the room is best read as capacity for the decisions ahead to use.

Two parts of this outlook are less settled than the rest. The room depends on school staffing continuing to adjust as enrollment falls: held at the FY2027 level instead, school staff would cost $27.8 million a year more by FY2040 and the room would fall a little short in FY2028 and run out for good from FY2036. And the near years are thin. Building permits in 2024 and 2025 were the lowest since at least 2018. The base case already holds FY2027's new growth at the Town's budgeted $2.5 million, about what they point to, but they also point to FY2028 new growth well below the trend. If it comes in that low, FY2028 would have a shortfall of about $0.5 million instead of $0.8 million of room, and each later year less, growing to about $1.7 million by FY2040. The state certifies FY2027's new growth this fall.

What the base case assumes

The base case continues Brookline's record rather than predicting a change in it. Its main assumptions:

• Pay. Town staff 3.0% a year, the Town's bargaining target; schools 3.7%, what the current contract's 2.75% raises plus step increases work out to by the School Department's own arithmetic; Public Safety 3.5%, with the fire steps agreed for FY2028 and the four police positions to be refilled in FY2028 and FY2029 counted on top.
• Health premiums. 8% a year from FY2030. Retirees are about half of the health plan's members but, since many are on Medicare supplement plans, about 36% of its cost; their number grows about 0.9% a year, as it has since FY2011.
• School staffing. Falling about half as fast as enrollment, as from FY2019 to FY2025: about ten positions a year, while children from new homes are staffed in full. The School Department's own plan holds staff at the FY2027 level.
• Police and fire. Staffing at the FY2027 budget, 128 sworn police officers and 160 firefighters. A fire company of 20 firefighters comes due once the town reaches about 31,200 homes, which at the recent pace of building is after FY2040. Police cost grows a little with each new home. Other Town departments stay at their FY2027 staffing.
• Enrollment. The forecast by the district's consultant, NESDEC, updated for the births since counted (2022 to 2024 averaged 449 a year; NESDEC had estimated about 500), falling to about 5,400 by FY2040. The School Department plans with a different forecast that expects a rebound; Enrollment: three forecasts compared sets the three side by side.
• New growth. The Town's budgeted $2.5 million in FY2027, then 1.23% of the levy a year, Brookline's rate over FY2022 to FY2026, with the Chestnut Hill development added on top.
• Pensions. Full funding in FY2030; from FY2031 the roughly $37 million a year that frees up, together with the current retiree health payment, $43.0 million a year in all, pays down the retiree health (OPEB) liability, as the Town plans, until it is paid off. On the actuary's own trend for retiree health costs, that is in FY2036, and the money is free again. What to do with it is a decision for then, so the base case sets it aside and doesn't count it as room.
• State aid. 2.5% a year from the FY2027 budget, the rate in the Town's own plan.
• Prices. 2.5% a year.
• Capital and reserves. The Select Board's policy from FY2028: 6.6% of the prior year's net revenue to capital, and the reserve fund and other non-departmental lines as Town policy sets them. What is left of free cash after those uses goes to capital and one-time spending, as the Town's free cash policy says, not to the operating budget.
• Votes. The May 2026 override phases in over FY2027 to FY2029; no further overrides or debt exclusions.

Put together, the base case adds almost no staff: Town departments hold at their FY2027 level, and school staff fall more slowly than enrollment.

Will Brookline need another override? changes each of these, one at a time, and the assumptions register sets out the evidence behind each.

Why the Town's own plan shows a deficit

The Town's long-range plan, presented in January 2026, shows a gap of $42.7 million in FY2031. The base case shows $8.0 million of room that year. The two answer different questions: the Town's plan is deliberately cautious, because being wrong in the optimistic direction means painful mid-year cuts, while the base case asks what happens if costs and revenue keep behaving as they have.

Two differences explain most of the $50.7 million between them. The override passed in May 2026, four months after the Town's plan was written, and is worth $27.3 million a year by FY2031. School pay: the Town's plan takes its school figures from the School Department's forecast, made before any look at efficiencies, with salaries rising about 5% a year; the base case uses about 3.7%, the middle of the range the School Department's own budget arithmetic gives for the current contract, enrollment follows the decline in births, and staff fall half as fast as enrollment where the Town's plan holds them constant. That step is worth $20.8 million.

The forecast: method and results walks through every step between the two.

How sure this is

These are continuations of Brookline's own record, not predictions. As a check, the forecast's method was run over FY2011 to FY2025, given what actually happened to staffing, enrollment and prices: it came within about 4% of what Town departments actually spent in FY2025, and within 6% for schools. Every assumption can be changed in the Forecast Explorer, and the assumptions register sets out the evidence behind each one.

Go deeper

• The forecast: method and results: How is the forecast built, and how does it compare with the Town's plan?
• Assumptions register: What does the forecast assume, and why?
• Forecast Explorer: What happens to the budget under your own assumptions?

Last updated 2026-10-14. What has changed.