Topic
Aging homeowners and family-sized homes
As Brookline's homeowners age, will more family-sized homes pass to families with children?
Probably, and more in the 2030s than now. The number of owners aged 65 and over grew by three-quarters from 2000 to 2020, and the share of each age group that stops owning within ten years has barely changed. More homes should change hands each year, adding perhaps 170 students by FY2040 beyond what the enrollment forecast already holds, most of them in the 2030s (about 15 more each year).
- Brookline had about 4,400 owner households aged 65 and over in 2020, against about 2,500 in 2000. The largest group of owners in 2010, those aged 55 to 64, was 65 to 74 by 2020.
- Within ten years, about one in eight owners aged 55 to 64 no longer owns a home in Brookline, about one in four aged 65 to 74, and about two in three aged 75 and over. Those shares were nearly the same in the 2000s and the 2010s.
- Applying them to 2020's ages, older owners leave about 160 homes with three or more bedrooms a year in the 2020s and about 190 in the 2030s, against about 100 in the 2000s and 130 in the 2010s.
- An older owner in a large home has about 0.14 public school students. A household that has just moved into one has about 0.41, and households that have lived in one for five to nine years have about 0.95, as young children reach school age.
- The enrollment forecast's rates already include the pace of the early 2020s. The increase after that adds about 170 students by FY2040, about 15 more each year through the 2030s, close to the Forecast Explorer's "Families moving in" setting of 0.35 point a year (+200).
The enrollment forecast moves each class up a grade at rates taken from Brookline's recent history, and those rates include the families who moved into the town's existing homes in those years. If more family-sized homes come up for sale or rent in the years ahead than in the recent past, more families can move in than the rates assume. This page asks whether that is likely, by following Brookline's homeowners through three Censuses. How the enrollment forecast works is on Enrollment: three forecasts compared, and what a newly built home brings is on Students from new homes.
The data
Two Census Bureau sources, which measure different things:
| Item | What it counts | What it can't do |
|---|---|---|
| The Census, 2000, 2010 and 2020 | Every household in Brookline, but published only as town totals: how many owner households there are with a householder of each age (the person in whose name the home is owned) | Follow a household from one Census to the next, or say how many bedrooms a home has |
| The American Community Survey, 2020 to 2024 | About 2,400 individual households in Brookline, Dedham and Milton, each surveyed once, with no names: the home's bedrooms, when the household moved in, everyone's age, and which children attend public school | Separate Brookline from the other two towns, or follow a household over time |
So neither source follows a family through the years. The Census compares groups: the owners aged 65 to 74 in 2000 with the owners aged 75 to 84 in 2010, who are the same people where they still own a home here. The survey compares households at one point in time: those who moved in recently with those who moved in years ago.
Why we expect more homes to change hands
There are many more older owners.
| Owner households, by age of householder | 2000 | 2010 | 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 45 to 54 | 3,117 | 2,561 | 2,617 |
| 55 to 64 | 2,035 | 2,952 | 2,548 |
| 65 to 74 | 1,307 | 1,800 | 2,551 |
| 75 and over | 1,155 | 1,363 | 1,805 |
| 65 and over | 2,462 | 3,163 | 4,356 |
The owners aged 55 to 64 in 2010 were the largest group in town, and by 2020 they were 65 to 74. Behind them, about 5,200 owners were aged 45 to 64 in 2020.
The share who stop owning has held steady. The chart follows each age group to the next Census. In 2000, for example, 1,155 owner households were headed by someone 75 or over. In 2010, ten years later, 383 were headed by someone 85 or over: 33%, about one in three. The other two in three no longer own a home in Brookline: the owner has died or moved away, or the home now belongs to someone younger, such as an adult child. The Census totals can't say which. A home that passes to a husband or wife of about the same age stays in the group.
More older owners stop owning each decade: about 130 a year in the 2000s, a projected 260 in the 2030s
Owner households by age of householder. Each colored band follows one age group to the next Census, when it is ten years older; the percentage is how many households that age group has then, against how many it had. The gray bands are the difference: owners of that age who are no longer counted as owners. The figures under each gray column count those aged 55 and over, as in the table below. These are town totals, not households followed one by one (see below). 2030 and 2040 are projected: the average of the two decades' rates applied to 2020's owners, then again to 2030's. 2040 has no 45 to 54 group, since it would come from owners 35 to 44 in 2030, who are not projected. Source: Census Bureau, 2000, 2010 and 2020 Censuses, Brookline.
The percentages are net. People who bought a home here in their 70s are counted in the next Census's older group, which makes the share still owning look higher than the share who stayed. So the number who left is probably a little larger than shown.
The shares barely changed between the two decades: 88% and 86% at 55 to 64, 75% and 74% at 65 to 74, 33% and 34% at 75 and over. With the shares steady and more owners in the older groups, more homes change hands:
| Decade | Homes older owners (55 and over) leave a year | Of which three or more bedrooms |
|---|---|---|
| 2000s (Census) | about 130 | about 100 |
| 2010s (Census) | about 180 | about 130 |
| 2020s (projected) | about 220 | about 160 |
| 2030s (projected) | about 260 | about 190 |
The 2020s apply the average of the two decades' shares to the owners counted in 2020; the 2030s apply them again to the owners projected for 2030 (the chart's 2030 and 2040 columns). Three in four homes owned by householders 55 and over have three or more bedrooms, in the survey.
What it adds to enrollment
Who leaves and who arrives. The survey shows how many public school students households in homes with three or more bedrooms have, by how long they have lived there:
Families in large homes have more students the longer they have lived there
Public school students (kindergarten to grade 12) per home with three or more bedrooms, by how long the household has lived there. Each bar is a different group of households, all surveyed at the same time; they are not the same families followed over the years. Source: Census Bureau, American Community Survey microdata, 2020 to 2024, Brookline, Dedham and Milton together.
The older owners who will leave have about 0.14 students a home. A household that has just moved into a large home has about 0.41, and about a quarter of them have a child under 5 who is not yet in school. Households that moved in five to nine years ago have about 0.95. So each large home that passes from an older owner to a new household adds about 0.27 students at first (0.41 less 0.14), and about 0.8 after five to nine years (0.95 less 0.14). Each bar is a different set of households, all surveyed in the same years; no family is followed from one bar to the next.
How we get to about 170 students. NESDEC's rates come from recent years, so they already include the homes that changed hands then. Only the homes beyond that pace add students. The calculation has three steps.
- The pace. Older owners leave about 160 homes with three or more bedrooms a year in the 2020s and about 190 in the 2030s (the decade table above). Drawing a straight line through those figures, the pace was about 158 homes a year in 2024, the middle of the years behind NESDEC's rates, and rises by about 3 a year: 175 in 2030, 189 in 2035, 200 in 2039.
- The extra homes. Each year's pace less the 2024 pace: about 6 extra homes in 2026, 17 in 2030, 31 in 2035 and 42 in 2039. From 2026 to 2039 that adds up to about 340 homes.
- The students in fall 2039 (FY2040). Each extra home counts the students of a household that has lived there as long as the home has changed hands, from the chart above, less the 0.14 of the older owner who left:
| Home changed hands | Extra homes | Years in the home by fall 2039 | Students per home | Less the older owner's | Added students |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 to 2029 | 40 | 10 to 13 | 0.77 | 0.63 | 25 |
| 2030 to 2034 | 113 | 5 to 9 | 0.95 | 0.81 | 91 |
| 2035 to 2037 | 101 | 2 to 4 | 0.41 | 0.27 | 27 |
| 2038 to 2039 | 82 | 0 to 1 | 0.41 | 0.27 | 22 |
| Total | 336 | 166 |
That is about 170 students in FY2040, about 3% of enrollment. Most come from homes that change hands in the early 2030s, whose children have reached school age by 2039.
The number builds slowly and then faster: about 10 extra students in FY2030, 60 in FY2035 and 170 in FY2040. Across the 2030s that is about 15 more students each year, rising from about 5 a year at the start of the decade to about 25 a year at the end.
As a forecast setting. The Forecast Explorer's Families moving in setting makes each class a little larger each year. About 0.3 point a year gives 170 students by FY2040. The nearest listed setting, 0.35 point a year (the rate since COVID), gives +200 and −$4.4M (Assumptions register). The base case keeps NESDEC's rates.
Why it might not
- Turnover rose in the 2010s too. Older owners left about 30 more family-sized homes a year in the 2010s than in the 2000s, yet before COVID Brookline's classes shrank about 7% from kindergarten to grade 12. A home that changes hands can go to a family; whether it does depends on price, schools and what else is for sale.
- Older owners may stay longer. The shares held for two decades but could still fall. If owners live longer or get more help at home, fewer would leave each decade.
- The Census does not count bedrooms. Owner households stand in for family-sized homes here. The share with three or more bedrooms, and the students the next household brings, come from a survey that covers Dedham and Milton as well as Brookline.
- A home that changes hands need not go to a family. The 0.41 students per arriving household is an average over everyone who moved into a large home recently, including couples without children and households of adults.
Sources and method
- Census Bureau, 2000 Census Summary File 1 (table H16), 2010 Census Summary File 1 (table H17) and 2020 Census Demographic and Housing Characteristics File (table H13), Massachusetts: tenure by age of householder, Brookline town.
- Census Bureau, American Community Survey public-use microdata, 2020 to 2024, Public Use Microdata Area 00902 (Brookline, Dedham and Milton): bedrooms, years in the home, age of householder and public school students, by household.
- NESDEC enrollment forecast as used in the base case.
The code and data behind every number on this page are on GitHub.
Go deeper
- Students from new homes: How many public school students does a new home bring, and what should the forecast assume?
- Enrollment: three forecasts compared: Why do the enrollment forecasts disagree, and which one does the base case use?
- Why families settle elsewhere: Why does Brookline draw fewer young families than towns like Lexington?
- Counting Brookline's homes: How many homes has Brookline been adding, of what kind, and what does the forecast assume?
- Assumptions register: What does the forecast assume, and why?
Last updated 2026-10-28. What has changed.